Since the start of 2022, there has been a significant increase in mortgage rates. Consequently, there has been a sharp decline in home purchases, leading to a slowdown in the turnover of housing. The conditional prepayment rate (CPR), which indicates the percentage of the mortgage pool that pre-pays investors annually due to home sales, has…
Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) data is indicating massive layoffs The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act of 1988 requires most companies with 100 or more employees to provide a 60-day advance notification of mass layoffs to employees. Data is collected from 23 states and aggregated into a national time series. This provides…
The Federal Reserve Faces Insolvency Amidst Rising Losses But Is Being Saved by Controversial Accounting Methods
Investors in commercial real estate are torn between anxiety and anticipation regarding the recent repricing of assets. Those who feel optimistic are actively seeking out assets that are likely to default and can be acquired at lower prices. The key lies in analyzing the timing of loan maturities.
The intensifying geopolitical and economic rivalry between the United States and China has been increasingly characterized as a New Cold War. As tensions escalate, both countries are increasingly seeking to reduce their economic interdependence and establish greater self-reliance.
The Systemic Nature of the Regional Banks’ Meltdown The meltdown in regional banks has emerged as a systemic crisis, triggering concerns among the investors. This downturn is characterized by a series of interconnected issues plaguing regional banks, with far-reaching implications for the industry as a whole. Note: KRE or SPDR® S&P® Regional Banking ETF, an…
Escalating US-China Tensions: Implications for Investments and Industries in the New Cold War
According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), the United States is expected to witness a significant decline in coal fired generating capacity, dropping below half of 2022 levels by 2050. In one of the scenarios, known as the Reference case, there is an anticipation of a 52% reduction in coal-fired capacity to 97 gigawatts…
NATO’s post-Cold War history is that of an organization far past its “sell-by” date. Desperate for a mission after the end of the Warsaw Pact, NATO in the late 1990s decided that it would become the muscle behind the militarization of “human rights” under the Clinton Administration. Gone was the “threat of global communism” which…
Over the past two years, inflation has remained consistently elevated, surpassing the Federal Reserve’s annual target of 2%. This high inflationary trend has been pervasive, affecting various sectors of the economy. It can be attributed to a combination of supply and demand factors closely linked to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the fiscal and monetary policies implemented in response to mitigate its impact.